5 thoughts on “The impact of the central bank's targeted reduction on the financial market?”
Gretchen
After the central bank announces the news, the financial market response is relatively bland. The relaxation of monetary policy in the middle and long term will definitely affect the price trend of financial malls. The impact on the stock market, the impact on each section or concept stocks is different. Generally speaking, financial and real estate -intensive industries will benefit. In addition to facilitating the stock market, it is also good for the overall decline of market interest rates. In fact, the short -term interest rate of the inter -bank market has been running at a low level in the near future. As more reduced interest rates and reducing interest rates, it will also drive long -term interest rates. Pucting information: Note: The purpose of lowering the standard: Increase support for small and micro enterprises. One is to increase the supply of long -term funds, and the cost of bank funds will be reduced. The replacement of MLF has reduced the cost of interest payment for commercial banks, which is conducive to reducing the cost of corporate financing. The other is to release 400 billion yuan in incremental funds, which increases the low -cost fund sources of small and micro enterprise loans. Requirements are required to be used mainly for small and micro -enterprise loans. The stable monetary policy maintains neutrality and should be tight and moderate. Many experts believe that compared with 2017, the growth rate of the scale of M2 and social financing this year is canceled. This means that the central bank's implementation of monetary policy regulation has accelerated from quantitative tools to price -type tools. It is expected that monetary policy will be more flexible this year. Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Orientation RRR cut Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Financial Market Reference Data Source: People's Daily-the Third Settlement of the year Is it possible to cut interest rates?
If the orientation is reduced, it is a favorable for the release of funds, because the funds that can be circulated in the market have become more. "The real economy of financial services must adhere to the orientation of 'total amount and structure optimization'." Ji Zhihong, director of the financial market of the Central Bank, said that economic structure adjustment and transformation and upgrading require a stable monetary and financial environment to support. The central bank will start from two aspects of total and structure, first stabilize the total amount of financing, strengthen credit policy guidance, optimize the financing structure, and Key areas and industries such as transformation and affordable housing construction focus on support. The expansion information "The" Direct RRR cut "is a positive incentive measure that belongs to the financial support of the real economy. Compared with the" comprehensive reduction ", it is more targeted and conducive to better financial resources Put into weak links such as "agriculture, rural areas", small and micro enterprises, etc., thereby promoting the adjustment of economic structure. "Ji Zhihong said that this move can not only increase the loan -available funds of financial institutions, but also reduce the" agriculture, rural areas, rural areas ", small, small, small, small, small, small, farmers, The financing costs of the micro -enterprise industry can also play a certain steady growth role, thereby steadily growing in regulating structure, promoting reforms, and benefiting people's livelihood.
The central bank will definitely release more liquidity of the banking industry, so that the funds on the market will be more abundant, which will help the financial market stability and the loose capital. This may also be an important reason why the stock market recovered before closing. On the whole, it is conducive to promoting the stock market. In from the specific sector, it will undoubtedly have a certain degree of enthusiasm for the bank sector: relaxing all banks to the silver root, the bank will not only alleviate the capital pressure caused by the epidemic, but also expand the scale of lending to a greater extent. For Of course, bank stocks are directly favorable. If you can increase all 550 billion yuan in loans, you can increase the profit of 9 billion in the next 10 months of profit margin and profitability of the next 10 months. Pucting information: In the "directional reduction" measures, and to the issuance of "agriculture, farmers", small and micro enterprises such as structural adjustment needs and meet the needs of market demand Industry financial institutions appropriately reduce the reserve rate. Compared with the "targeted reduction" announced by the central bank on April 25, the structure and guidance policies of the "directional reduction" are more clear. "Direct RRRC 'is a positive incentive measure that belongs to the financial support of the real economy. Compared with the" Comprehensive Relibery ", it is more targeted and conducive to the better placement of financial resources to the" agriculture, rural areas, and rural areas " , Small and micro enterprises and other weak links, thereby promoting the adjustment of the economic structure. "Ji Zhihong said that this move can not only increase the loan -available funds of financial institutions, but also reduce the financing costs of" agriculture, rural areas, rural areas ", and small and micro enterprises. To a certain stable growth role, it has stabilized the growth of structure, promoting reforms, and benefiting people's livelihood.
Theoretically, if the orientation is reduced, it is a good way to release funds, which is good for the financial market. Because the funds that can be circulated in the market have become more. It is manifested in the following aspects: 1. The reduction is conducive to alleviating the impact of the international market The central bank announced that it will continue to implement a steady and neutral monetary policy, do not engage in large water irrigation, pay attention to directional control, and maintain reasonable liquidity and abundance. Guide the rational growth of monetary credit and social financing scale, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high -quality development and supply -side structural reforms. Essence 2, the overall favorable financial market, the impact on the commodity market is small The overall financial market is favorable. In view of the strong support of the current bond market, the reduction in the bond market is stronger than the stock market. However, at the same time, due to the increase in the pressure of the renminbi during the holidays, the decline in domestic interest rate levels, and the reduction in the amount of standards on asset prices was partially affected, followed by observing whether the domestic interest rate level can be effectively descended. 3, orientation regulation will not form a depreciation pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB This RRRC still belongs to the directional regulation. The total liquidity of the banking system is basically stable. The silver root is stable and neutral, and the monetary policy orientation has not changed. The reduction is conducive to promoting the adjustment of the economic structure and promoting high -quality development. The economic support is more consolidated in the face of the support of the RMB exchange rate. As a large -scale development economy, China's exports have strong competitiveness.
The expansion information: through the reduction, the first is to increase the liquidity of the market so that commercial banks can have stronger credit release capabilities. The funds are relatively abundant, and it is good for the credit of credit. The second is that the liquidity of funds is relatively loose, which helps to decline in market interest rate levels. After the deposit reserve ratio is reduced. The commercial banks can get about 15 billion yuan in costs. After the cost decreases, it will also help banks to provide lower financing costs and credit funds in the future. At the same time, it is not ruled out that the MLF interest rate will be reduced to affect the lowering of the traction LPR interest rate to reduce the financing cost of the enterprise. Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Restable
Following the three consecutive declines in 2019, the annual references of the 2020s have been replaced in a timely manner, continuing the path to serve private and small and micro enterprises by the central bank's use of generally decline since 2019. As a prelude to the early financial policy of 2020, the reduction responded quickly to the "further study adopting a reduction and targeted reduction, re -discounting, and discounting on December 23 to promote small and micro The problem of difficult financing of corporate financing is obviously relieved. "It will also lead active fiscal policies such as tax cuts and burdens. At present, alleviating the bottleneck of physical financing is still the center of gravity, and this reduction fully reflects the orientation of supporting the real economy. Focusing on the benefit of the real economy, the start of annual reduction will bring the benefits such as reduced financing costs and improvement of the financing environment, and it is expected to promote infrastructure to supplement the shortcomings to accelerate the landing.
. Reduce financing costs, benefit the real economy n due to it due to The legal deposit reserves paid by banks such as banks and other financial institutions are generally unavailable. Therefore, when the reserve rate is high and the funds are tight, the bank will carefully choose the loan object. The problem, as a whole, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) remained at a high level. This reserve rate to release the reserve rate to the entire financial system released more than 800 billion yuan in long -term low -cost funds, increasing the source of stable funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of bank funds by about 15 billion yuan (each year), and and and. Through banking transmission, the actual interest rate of the loan can be reduced, especially the actual cost of small and micro and private enterprises' financing, which will play a direct support for the real economy.
It this time, the central bank specially emphasizes that it is conducive to enhancing small and medium banks to serve private, small and micro enterprises The funding strength of the funds, so in the release of funds, only urban commercial banks operated in the provincial administrative area, as well as small and medium -sized banks such as rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives, and village banks that serve counties. 100 million yuan. Generally speaking, the capital of the city commercial bank operated in the province is weak and the liquidity is relatively tight. The lower deposit reserve ratio of small and medium -sized banks can reduce its liability pressure, reduce its debt costs, and alleviate the cost constraints of small and medium -sized banks to serve the real economy.
to drop down It is allowed to improve the improvement of bank funds. The most direct benefit will be the financing environment of cyclical conditions such as infrastructure. Promoted by policies, the large infrastructure sector (construction, environmental protection, building materials, coal and steel colors) on January 2 benefited obviously. The infrastructure construction industry and related upstream and downstream industries, such as upstream cement and downstream motors, all performed well well. Essence The at the same time, implement the "Stable Monetary Policies on the Issuance of Local Government Special Treaster Treaster and Project Supporting financing" in June 2019 Do a good job of issuance of special bond issuance and project supporting financing. "On January 2nd, Sichuan and Henan provinces publicly bidded and issued special bonds, which opened the curtain of local government bond issuance in 2020. Because the special debt issued in advance cannot be used in real estate -related fields such as soil storage and shed reform, it will mainly flow to the infrastructure field. The old industry generally believes that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to significantly rebound.
In fact, since the fourth quarter of 2018, there have been a climax of centralized projects in major projects. Therefore, in the past December, the civil engineering construction industry continued to grow rapidly, and the business activity index and the new order indexes were higher than 0.7 and 5.3 percentage points of last month, respectively. This is in sharp contrast to the overall seasonal decline of the construction industry, which is mainly due to factors such as the acceleration of infrastructure construction projects. A series of policies at the beginning of 2020 are expected to significantly support the rise of infrastructure in the first quarter of 2020.
. Infrastructure is expected to steadily improve n The notice of the issuance of special debt issuance and project supporting financing work "emphasizes that" guide financial institutions to strengthen financial services, and ensure the reasonable financing needs of major projects in accordance with the principles of commercialization ", in addition to direct financing benefits and financial support, The signal released by the "wide currency" is also quite obvious for guiding and promoting financial institutions to support the real economy such as infrastructure. In Tianjin as an example, "General RRR cuts directional regulation" has a significant impact on the business direction and business philosophy of financial institutions. Many financial institutions have taken the initiative to make differentiated and strategic adjustments to support the development of the real economy. For example, the business processes for the demand for the real economy financing, increasing innovation to meet the financial needs of different levels, etc. From the perspective of effect, it is also directly reflected in the decline in loan interest rates and a reduction of multiple expenses.
It, the previous State Council's "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Capital Management of Fixed Asset Investment Projects" has lowered the minimum capital ratio of some infrastructure projects. Objectively promote infrastructure forces and benefit upstream and downstream areas. of course, the development of infrastructure still needs to follow the "moderate development" idea that the "government investment regulations" and the relevant meeting of the Party Central Committee. Local governments should be matched with their own financial resources and economic development "rhythm" in accordance with the actual situation. In mid -December 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "strengthening urban renewal and renovation and improvement of stock housing, renovation of old and old communities in urban and towns", as well as shortcomings such as urban parking lots, urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities, etc. hand.
2020 The annual reduction is not only to release funds, but also by improving the mechanism of monetary policy transmission, dredging Monetary policy transmission channels to stimulate the micro -vitality of the market, further play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resource allocation, and support the development of the real economy. For the real economy such as infrastructure, the economy is also a general trend.
After the central bank announces the news, the financial market response is relatively bland. The relaxation of monetary policy in the middle and long term will definitely affect the price trend of financial malls.
The impact on the stock market, the impact on each section or concept stocks is different. Generally speaking, financial and real estate -intensive industries will benefit. In addition to facilitating the stock market, it is also good for the overall decline of market interest rates. In fact, the short -term interest rate of the inter -bank market has been running at a low level in the near future. As more reduced interest rates and reducing interest rates, it will also drive long -term interest rates.
Pucting information:
Note:
The purpose of lowering the standard: Increase support for small and micro enterprises. One is to increase the supply of long -term funds, and the cost of bank funds will be reduced. The replacement of MLF has reduced the cost of interest payment for commercial banks, which is conducive to reducing the cost of corporate financing. The other is to release 400 billion yuan in incremental funds, which increases the low -cost fund sources of small and micro enterprise loans. Requirements are required to be used mainly for small and micro -enterprise loans.
The stable monetary policy maintains neutrality and should be tight and moderate. Many experts believe that compared with 2017, the growth rate of the scale of M2 and social financing this year is canceled. This means that the central bank's implementation of monetary policy regulation has accelerated from quantitative tools to price -type tools. It is expected that monetary policy will be more flexible this year.
Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Orientation RRR cut
Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Financial Market
Reference Data Source: People's Daily-the Third Settlement of the year Is it possible to cut interest rates?
If the orientation is reduced, it is a favorable for the release of funds, because the funds that can be circulated in the market have become more.
"The real economy of financial services must adhere to the orientation of 'total amount and structure optimization'." Ji Zhihong, director of the financial market of the Central Bank, said that economic structure adjustment and transformation and upgrading require a stable monetary and financial environment to support.
The central bank will start from two aspects of total and structure, first stabilize the total amount of financing, strengthen credit policy guidance, optimize the financing structure, and Key areas and industries such as transformation and affordable housing construction focus on support.
The expansion information
"The" Direct RRR cut "is a positive incentive measure that belongs to the financial support of the real economy. Compared with the" comprehensive reduction ", it is more targeted and conducive to better financial resources Put into weak links such as "agriculture, rural areas", small and micro enterprises, etc., thereby promoting the adjustment of economic structure.
"Ji Zhihong said that this move can not only increase the loan -available funds of financial institutions, but also reduce the" agriculture, rural areas, rural areas ", small, small, small, small, small, small, farmers, The financing costs of the micro -enterprise industry can also play a certain steady growth role, thereby steadily growing in regulating structure, promoting reforms, and benefiting people's livelihood.
The central bank will definitely release more liquidity of the banking industry, so that the funds on the market will be more abundant, which will help the financial market stability and the loose capital. This may also be an important reason why the stock market recovered before closing. On the whole, it is conducive to promoting the stock market.
In from the specific sector, it will undoubtedly have a certain degree of enthusiasm for the bank sector: relaxing all banks to the silver root, the bank will not only alleviate the capital pressure caused by the epidemic, but also expand the scale of lending to a greater extent. For Of course, bank stocks are directly favorable. If you can increase all 550 billion yuan in loans, you can increase the profit of 9 billion in the next 10 months of profit margin and profitability of the next 10 months.
Pucting information:
In the "directional reduction" measures, and to the issuance of "agriculture, farmers", small and micro enterprises such as structural adjustment needs and meet the needs of market demand Industry financial institutions appropriately reduce the reserve rate. Compared with the "targeted reduction" announced by the central bank on April 25, the structure and guidance policies of the "directional reduction" are more clear.
"Direct RRRC 'is a positive incentive measure that belongs to the financial support of the real economy. Compared with the" Comprehensive Relibery ", it is more targeted and conducive to the better placement of financial resources to the" agriculture, rural areas, and rural areas " , Small and micro enterprises and other weak links, thereby promoting the adjustment of the economic structure. "Ji Zhihong said that this move can not only increase the loan -available funds of financial institutions, but also reduce the financing costs of" agriculture, rural areas, rural areas ", and small and micro enterprises. To a certain stable growth role, it has stabilized the growth of structure, promoting reforms, and benefiting people's livelihood.
Theoretically, if the orientation is reduced, it is a good way to release funds, which is good for the financial market. Because the funds that can be circulated in the market have become more. It is manifested in the following aspects:
1. The reduction is conducive to alleviating the impact of the international market
The central bank announced that it will continue to implement a steady and neutral monetary policy, do not engage in large water irrigation, pay attention to directional control, and maintain reasonable liquidity and abundance. Guide the rational growth of monetary credit and social financing scale, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high -quality development and supply -side structural reforms. Essence
2, the overall favorable financial market, the impact on the commodity market is small
The overall financial market is favorable. In view of the strong support of the current bond market, the reduction in the bond market is stronger than the stock market. However, at the same time, due to the increase in the pressure of the renminbi during the holidays, the decline in domestic interest rate levels, and the reduction in the amount of standards on asset prices was partially affected, followed by observing whether the domestic interest rate level can be effectively descended.
3, orientation regulation will not form a depreciation pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB
This RRRC still belongs to the directional regulation. The total liquidity of the banking system is basically stable. The silver root is stable and neutral, and the monetary policy orientation has not changed. The reduction is conducive to promoting the adjustment of the economic structure and promoting high -quality development. The economic support is more consolidated in the face of the support of the RMB exchange rate. As a large -scale development economy, China's exports have strong competitiveness.
The expansion information:
through the reduction, the first is to increase the liquidity of the market so that commercial banks can have stronger credit release capabilities. The funds are relatively abundant, and it is good for the credit of credit. The second is that the liquidity of funds is relatively loose, which helps to decline in market interest rate levels. After the deposit reserve ratio is reduced.
The commercial banks can get about 15 billion yuan in costs. After the cost decreases, it will also help banks to provide lower financing costs and credit funds in the future. At the same time, it is not ruled out that the MLF interest rate will be reduced to affect the lowering of the traction LPR interest rate to reduce the financing cost of the enterprise.
Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Restable
Following the three consecutive declines in 2019, the annual references of the 2020s have been replaced in a timely manner, continuing the path to serve private and small and micro enterprises by the central bank's use of generally decline since 2019. As a prelude to the early financial policy of 2020, the reduction responded quickly to the "further study adopting a reduction and targeted reduction, re -discounting, and discounting on December 23 to promote small and micro The problem of difficult financing of corporate financing is obviously relieved. "It will also lead active fiscal policies such as tax cuts and burdens.
At present, alleviating the bottleneck of physical financing is still the center of gravity, and this reduction fully reflects the orientation of supporting the real economy. Focusing on the benefit of the real economy, the start of annual reduction will bring the benefits such as reduced financing costs and improvement of the financing environment, and it is expected to promote infrastructure to supplement the shortcomings to accelerate the landing.
. Reduce financing costs, benefit the real economy
n
due to it due to The legal deposit reserves paid by banks such as banks and other financial institutions are generally unavailable. Therefore, when the reserve rate is high and the funds are tight, the bank will carefully choose the loan object. The problem, as a whole, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) remained at a high level.
This reserve rate to release the reserve rate to the entire financial system released more than 800 billion yuan in long -term low -cost funds, increasing the source of stable funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of bank funds by about 15 billion yuan (each year), and and and. Through banking transmission, the actual interest rate of the loan can be reduced, especially the actual cost of small and micro and private enterprises' financing, which will play a direct support for the real economy.
It this time, the central bank specially emphasizes that it is conducive to enhancing small and medium banks to serve private, small and micro enterprises The funding strength of the funds, so in the release of funds, only urban commercial banks operated in the provincial administrative area, as well as small and medium -sized banks such as rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives, and village banks that serve counties. 100 million yuan. Generally speaking, the capital of the city commercial bank operated in the province is weak and the liquidity is relatively tight. The lower deposit reserve ratio of small and medium -sized banks can reduce its liability pressure, reduce its debt costs, and alleviate the cost constraints of small and medium -sized banks to serve the real economy.
. Monetal policy transmission, infrastructure expectations improve
to drop down It is allowed to improve the improvement of bank funds. The most direct benefit will be the financing environment of cyclical conditions such as infrastructure. Promoted by policies, the large infrastructure sector (construction, environmental protection, building materials, coal and steel colors) on January 2 benefited obviously. The infrastructure construction industry and related upstream and downstream industries, such as upstream cement and downstream motors, all performed well well. Essence
The at the same time, implement the "Stable Monetary Policies on the Issuance of Local Government Special Treaster Treaster and Project Supporting financing" in June 2019 Do a good job of issuance of special bond issuance and project supporting financing. "On January 2nd, Sichuan and Henan provinces publicly bidded and issued special bonds, which opened the curtain of local government bond issuance in 2020. Because the special debt issued in advance cannot be used in real estate -related fields such as soil storage and shed reform, it will mainly flow to the infrastructure field. The old industry generally believes that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to significantly rebound.
In fact, since the fourth quarter of 2018, there have been a climax of centralized projects in major projects. Therefore, in the past December, the civil engineering construction industry continued to grow rapidly, and the business activity index and the new order indexes were higher than 0.7 and 5.3 percentage points of last month, respectively. This is in sharp contrast to the overall seasonal decline of the construction industry, which is mainly due to factors such as the acceleration of infrastructure construction projects. A series of policies at the beginning of 2020 are expected to significantly support the rise of infrastructure in the first quarter of 2020.
. Infrastructure is expected to steadily improve
n
The notice of the issuance of special debt issuance and project supporting financing work "emphasizes that" guide financial institutions to strengthen financial services, and ensure the reasonable financing needs of major projects in accordance with the principles of commercialization ", in addition to direct financing benefits and financial support, The signal released by the "wide currency" is also quite obvious for guiding and promoting financial institutions to support the real economy such as infrastructure.
In Tianjin as an example, "General RRR cuts directional regulation" has a significant impact on the business direction and business philosophy of financial institutions. Many financial institutions have taken the initiative to make differentiated and strategic adjustments to support the development of the real economy. For example, the business processes for the demand for the real economy financing, increasing innovation to meet the financial needs of different levels, etc. From the perspective of effect, it is also directly reflected in the decline in loan interest rates and a reduction of multiple expenses.
It, the previous State Council's "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Capital Management of Fixed Asset Investment Projects" has lowered the minimum capital ratio of some infrastructure projects. Objectively promote infrastructure forces and benefit upstream and downstream areas.
of course, the development of infrastructure still needs to follow the "moderate development" idea that the "government investment regulations" and the relevant meeting of the Party Central Committee. Local governments should be matched with their own financial resources and economic development "rhythm" in accordance with the actual situation. In mid -December 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "strengthening urban renewal and renovation and improvement of stock housing, renovation of old and old communities in urban and towns", as well as shortcomings such as urban parking lots, urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities, etc. hand.
2020 The annual reduction is not only to release funds, but also by improving the mechanism of monetary policy transmission, dredging Monetary policy transmission channels to stimulate the micro -vitality of the market, further play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resource allocation, and support the development of the real economy. For the real economy such as infrastructure, the economy is also a general trend.